See link: My March 2006 prediction of Toronto’s summer this year: dry and hot!
Heh, maybe my mind is tapping into the supercomputer (that I just read about in the CTV article) that forecasts 3 months in advance. Maybe that’s why I said I had to wait to know about the next bit of weather. hmmm, curious. 🙂
Forecasters predict hotter-than-normal summer
“We never forecast records . . . [but] when you roll the dice, it comes up warmer day after day, year after year,” said David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada.
“Our ancestors dealt with colder seasons than we have now,” he added in an interview yesterday. “You could be seduced into thinking this is climate change. I think it is.”
The forecast shows the entire province of Ontario and almost all of Quebec with an 80- to 100-per-cent chance of higher-than-normal temperatures.
Predictions of warm weather run across most of the country, although the probability is lower in other areas. Only a few parts of western British Columbia and some northern and less-populated regions can reasonably expect normal weather.
This comes after an unusually warm spring sent the pollen count soaring in some areas, causing people with allergies to suffer.
Weather forecasts are compared to data from 1961 to 1990, and have been cooler than that period only four times in the past 25 years. The most recent such summer was when Brian Mulroney was prime minister and Billy Ray Cyrus and M. C. Hammer topped singles charts.
“The last cool summer we had was 1992,” Mr. Phillips marvelled, “and how long ago was that?”
A lack of rain will affect mostly those who farm crops such as wheat, soybeans and corn, which require large amounts of water. Last year was hot but with adequate rainfall; this year remains to be seen.
“Precipitation is always a problem,” Mr. Phillips allowed. “When we get precipitation right I always think it’s pretty much by chance.”
As a forecast, there’s no guarantee the three-month projection will come true. Although only time will tell just how warm it will get this year, Mr. Phillips noted that any abnormal heat has a broad spillover effect.
“It has implications for energy use. It has implications for dirty air.”
A major concern of a hot summer is heavy use of air conditioners that strain the electricity supply, said Terry Young of the Independent Electricity System Operator, which is responsible for Ontario’s power system.
“On a hot summer day, you can see anywhere between 10 to 25 per cent of the demand attributed to air conditioning, and we saw the effects last summer,” he said.
Power consumption in Ontario hit record highs during the summer of 2005 and prompted warnings that rolling blackouts might be needed if people did not conserve energy.
Mr. Young said the situation doesn’t appear as dire this year because new power generation is available, but he warned that a lack of conservation could lead to another energy crisis.
With a report from Canadian Press
In 2005:
Calgary was doused with a record 247.6 millimetres of rain in June of 2005, more than three times the normal amount. Nearly 400 millimetres fell in areas outside the city.
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A series of Southern Ontario thunderstorms on Aug. 19 caused $500-million damage, the worst insured loss in the province’s history. Two tornadoes uprooted hundreds of trees, damaged homes and tore down power lines southwest of Toronto.
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Canada had it sixth-warmest year in almost 60 years. June, July and August were the hottest on record in Toronto, with 41 days where the temperature rose above 30.
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The eastern half of the country experienced a record number of smog days last year. Ontario announced 15 smog advisories covering a total of 53 days, twice that of the previous year. Quebec had 25 smog days and Atlantic Canada had three.
More links
Weather Almanac — While I did NOT use this almanac to predict the weather this year, it is an amazing and fairly accurate tool that I used back in my teens when I wanted to go visit a place and needed to know what type of weather I would face. I guess one could say I have always cared about weather even though I don’t know the scientific background of predicting. My psychic senses do quite well with predicting weather though and I just discovered this last year. I say, COOL! 🙂
Canada weather predictions and USA weather predictions
If you are planning a wedding it’s a great idea to check the alamanac and the Weather Network — both amazing sources for weather predictions though I have to say I’m the best source. 😉